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1-3 day weather forecast for Brussels (GFS)

 


Source: Wetterzentrale

 

 

1-15 day forecast for Brussels (GFS)

 


Source: Wetterzentrale

 

 

 


Source: Wetterzentrale

 

Weather maps of the above depicted 11 ensembles
 
500 hPa / MSLP +24 +48 +72 +96 +120 +144 +168 +192 +216 +240 +264 +288 +312 +336 +360 +384
T850 hPa +24 +48 +72 +96 +120 +144 +168 +192 +216 +240 +264 +288 +312 +336 +360 +384

 
Legend of 1-15 days forecast (Ensembles of GFS)

Ensemble consists 52 runs (or members) =1 operational run, 1 undisturbed control run but with a resolution of twice as much as operational run, 50 slightly disturbed runs based on operational run but also with a resolution of twice as much as the operational run.

 

Depicted are one control run and 10 slightly disturbed members.

Upper values are forecasted temperatures at 850 hPa in C (left column)
Bold red line=30 years mean value
Bold green line = operational run
Bold blue line=control run
Bold white line=mean value of the 11 depicted lines
Other colored thin lines=10 other (slightly disturbed) runs


Bottom values are forecasted amounts of precipitation in mm (right column)
Bold green line = operational run
Bold blue line=control run
Bold white line=mean value of the 11 depicted lines
Other colored thin lines=10 other (slightly disturbed) runs

 

T850 hPa is useful for forecasting Tmax temperature by adding a certain value (difference Tmax - T850 hPa) depending on season and amount of cloud. 

Source experimental diagram: Alwin Haklander

 

 

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