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1-7 day forecast for thunderstorms via KO Index

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00 UTC

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06 UTC

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12 UTC

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18 UTC

 

 

Run of 06 UTC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Source: Wetter3

 
Legend.

KO Index = blue lines with values. (S = >+6 = stable, L = < -6 = unstable).
Vertical motion forced by dynamical forcing at 500 hPa = zones in color (hPa/hour).

 

Critical values KO.

> 6: no potential risk thunderstorms.
2-6: small potential risk for thunderstorms.
< 2: potential risk for thunderstorms.

Vertical motion: large negative values = strong ascent

 

Combination of both:

Stable KO region + negative motion = frontal zone. If the negative motion is positioned on a strong gradient in the KO indices between a stable and unstable zone: front is potentially unstable with risk for severe embedded thunderstorms
Unstable KO region + negative motion = active upper trough with risk severe thunderstorms
Unstable KO region without negative motion = air mass instability which may produce thunderstorms due to diurnal heating (mainly in the afternoon)

 

 

 

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